Formatting
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Olivia Appleton
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README.md
139
README.md
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@ -33,91 +33,58 @@ Documentation [here](https://market-manager.oliviaappleton.com/)
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Every time you run `example.py`, it goes through the following steps:
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1. (TODO) If flagged, scan a JSON file
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1. For each entry:
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1. If it's a market creation request, add it to `pending`
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2. If it's an existing market, add it to `markets`
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2. Clear the file
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1. For each entry:
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1. If it's a market creation request, add it to `pending`
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2. If it's an existing market, add it to `markets`
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2. Clear the file
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2. (TODO) Unless flagged otherwise, for each market in `pending`:
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1. Check your balance
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2. If it's less than M$100, break
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3. If it's less than the `cost` of this market, continue
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4. Create the market
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5. Add it to `markets`
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6. Remove it from `pending`
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1. Check your balance
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2. If it's less than M$100, break
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3. If it's less than the `cost` of this market, continue
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4. Create the market
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5. Add it to `markets`
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6. Remove it from `pending`
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3. If flagged, manually remove many markets from `markets`
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4. If flagged, manually add a market to `markets`
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5. Unless flagged otherwise, for each market in `markets`:
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1. If the time is before `last_checked + check_rate` and refresh is not flagged, continue
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2. If the market does not meet the resolution criteria, continue
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3. Ask the operator what action to take (either via Telegram or the console):
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1. Cancel it, or
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2. Resolve to the suggested value, or
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3. Do nothing
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4. Update check time
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1. If the time is before `last_checked + check_rate` and refresh is not flagged, continue
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2. If the market does not meet the resolution criteria, continue
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3. Ask the operator what action to take (either via Telegram or the console):
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1. Cancel it, or
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2. Resolve to the suggested value, or
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3. Do nothing
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4. Update check time
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## Database Spec
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- `markets`
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- `id`: INTEGER
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- `market`: A serialized python object with the relevant rules
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- `check_rate`: REAL, the minimum number of hours between checks
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- `last_checked`: TIMESTAMP, the time it was last checked (or NULL)
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- `id`: INTEGER
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- `market`: A serialized python object with the relevant rules
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- `check_rate`: REAL, the minimum number of hours between checks
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- `last_checked`: TIMESTAMP, the time it was last checked (or NULL)
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- `pending`
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- `id`: INTEGER
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- `priority`: REAL, lower means you get created sooner
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- `cost`: INTEGER, cost in mana to create, lower means you get created sooner
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- `request`: A serialized python object with the relevant rules and info
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- `id`: INTEGER
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- `priority`: REAL, lower means you get created sooner
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- `cost`: INTEGER, cost in mana to create, lower means you get created sooner
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- `request`: A serialized python object with the relevant rules and info
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## Immediate Goals
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- [x] Make test for each untested function in PyManifold
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- [ ] move `example_json` into main library
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- [ ] write tests for whatever comes of `example_json`
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- [ ] Make an API to import JSON markets without creating one
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- [ ] test `from_dict` of rule, subclasses
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- [x] test `from_dict` of rule
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- [x] test `from_dict` of defaultable subclasses
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- [ ] test `from_dict` of non-defaultable subclasses
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- [ ] test `__main__` by monkeypatching the `main()` function
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- [ ] disable warning about default explain_specific if classvar acknowledges default behavior as intended
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- [ ] Make comparison rules (>, <, etc)
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- [x] test GitHub rules using real examples
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- [x] test register_db
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- [x] test ManifoldMarketMixin (done implicitly via the Other rules)
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- [x] test manifold user rules using real examples
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- [x] test manifold this rules using real examples
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- [x] test manifold other rules using real examples
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- [ ] test market.py (1/8)
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- [x] from_url
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- [ ] explain_abstract
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- [ ] explain_specific
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- [ ] current answer
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- [ ] should_resolve
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- [ ] resolve_to
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- [ ] resolve
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- [ ] cancel
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- [ ] test abstract.py (0/3)
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- [ ] abstractrule subclass enforcement
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- [ ] explain_abstract
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- [ ] explain_specific
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- [ ] test generic.py (3/5)
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- [x] modulus
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- [x] sum
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- [x] product
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- [ ] random index
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- [ ] multiple values
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- [x] test util.py
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- [x] use pyee to enable events on markets
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- [ ] add a submodule for scanners
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- [ ] add a hook to insert preambles in explain_specific()
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- [ ] figure out how to make myself show up on leaderboard even if not placed
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- [ ] Truth table rule
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For N markets, make 2^N choices
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For N markets, make 2^N choice
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If any component market resolves PROB, treat it as a superposition, so (p|YES, y, z> + [1-p]|NO, y, z>)
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If any component resolves to CANCEL, either cancel the whole market or resolve to it as a 50/50 superposition
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If any component resolves to CANCEL, either cancel the whole market or resolve to it as a 50/50 superposition
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So this is a Rule[MultipleChoiceResolution] whose children are Rule[BinaryResolution] (specifically OtherMarketValue[BinaryResolution])
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So this is a Rule[MultipleChoiceResolution] whose children are Rule[BinaryResolution] (specifically OtherMarketValue[BinaryResolution])
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- [ ] support multiple accounts by prepending username to table names, or adding username field
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- [ ] move confirmation code to own file, one for console, one for telegram, and an extra (Null) that implements the protocol as an example
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@ -126,31 +93,31 @@ If any component market resolves PROB, treat it as a superposition, so (p|YES, y
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The goal of this project is to make a Manifold agent that can manage various forms of markets. Currently targeted are:
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1. Mirror markets on another service
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- Include ability to do this for future markets via regex or tag matching
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- Example: Election markets
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- Include ability to do this for future markets via regex or tag matching
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- Example: Election markets
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2. Future Discount Markets
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- Automatically make markets that resolve at a variety of different dates
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- Offer a link that charts the future discount based off of these markets
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- Automatically make markets that resolve at a variety of different dates
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- Offer a link that charts the future discount based off of these markets
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3. Ethereum/Python Improvement Proposals
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- Automatically make markets for whether a PEP or EIP is accepted
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- Resolve when the associated issue has been closed for some amount of time
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- Might be able to just resolve to round(MKT), honestly
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- Maybe use this instead as a flag for error, if ex: pull request accepted but round(MKT)=0, flag for attention
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- Actually, this might look like a generic Pull Request -> Manifold Market bridge
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- If so, make some for every Manifold PR
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- Automatically make markets for whether a PEP or EIP is accepted
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- Resolve when the associated issue has been closed for some amount of time
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- Might be able to just resolve to round(MKT), honestly
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- Maybe use this instead as a flag for error, if ex: pull request accepted but round(MKT)=0, flag for attention
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- Actually, this might look like a generic Pull Request -> Manifold Market bridge
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- If so, make some for every Manifold PR
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4. Box Office Futures Markets
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- Note that this could include Rotten Tomatoes scores as well
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- Feels easily queryable
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- Feels like movies from major studios could be fetched fairly easily
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- Note that this could include Rotten Tomatoes scores as well
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- Feels easily queryable
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- Feels like movies from major studios could be fetched fairly easily
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5. Rotten Tomatoes Markets
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- Make it for 1, 4, 10 weeks after release
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- Use https://pypi.org/project/rotten-tomatoes-scraper/
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- Make it for 1, 4, 10 weeks after release
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- Use https://pypi.org/project/rotten-tomatoes-scraper/
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5. Markets for OSM campaigns and bounties
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6. Conditional Markets
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7. Does a US Congress bill pass?
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- Use https://sunlightlabs.github.io/congress/bills.html
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- Resolve to YES iff history.enacted
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- Resolve to NO iff not history.enacted and not history.active
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- Use https://sunlightlabs.github.io/congress/bills.html
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- Resolve to YES iff history.enacted
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- Resolve to NO iff not history.enacted and not history.active
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## How to Run/Contribute
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@ -158,13 +125,13 @@ The goal of this project is to make a Manifold agent that can manage various for
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2. Load the submodules
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3. Run `make dependencies`
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4. Make a file called `env_<name>.sh`. It should contain a max of 7 exports
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1. `ManifoldAPIKey`: The API key for managing your Manifold markets. See [here](https://docs.manifold.markets/api) for instructions on how to retrieve it.
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2. `DBName`: The name of your database file
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3. `LogFile`: The name of a logfile to use
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4. `TelegramAPIKey`: The API key for your Telegram bot. For more info, see [here](https://github.com/python-telegram-bot/python-telegram-bot/wiki/Introduction-to-the-API)
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5. `TelegramChatID`: The chat ID between your Telegram bot and you. For more info, see [here](https://github.com/python-telegram-bot/python-telegram-bot/wiki/Introduction-to-the-API)
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6. `GithubAccessToken`: The Personal Access Token for reading GitHub issues and pull requests. Strictly speaking not needed, and it will try to fall back to unauthorized requests, but that isn't always feasible.
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7. `GithubUsername`: See above
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1. `ManifoldAPIKey`: The API key for managing your Manifold markets. See [here](https://docs.manifold.markets/api) for instructions on how to retrieve it.
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2. `DBName`: The name of your database file
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3. `LogFile`: The name of a logfile to use
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4. `TelegramAPIKey`: The API key for your Telegram bot. For more info, see [here](https://github.com/python-telegram-bot/python-telegram-bot/wiki/Introduction-to-the-API)
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5. `TelegramChatID`: The chat ID between your Telegram bot and you. For more info, see [here](https://github.com/python-telegram-bot/python-telegram-bot/wiki/Introduction-to-the-API)
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6. `GithubAccessToken`: The Personal Access Token for reading GitHub issues and pull requests. Strictly speaking not needed, and it will try to fall back to unauthorized requests, but that isn't always feasible.
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7. `GithubUsername`: See above
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5. Add your first markets using the arguments provided in `src/__main__.py`. Each market needs at least one DoResolveRule and at least one ResolveToRule. The simplest ResolveToRule is `--round` or `--current`. The simplest DoResolve rule is `--rel-date`. More complicated markets may need to have rules constructed manually.
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6. When you've added all your markets, modify the polling frequency in `daemon.sh`, then run `make daemon`
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