398 lines
462 KiB
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398 lines
462 KiB
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string: "{\"id\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"creatorId\":\"k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2\",\"creatorUsername\":\"LivInTheLookingGlass\",\"creatorName\":\"Olivia\",\"createdTime\":1662505175369,\"creatorAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLivInTheLookingGlass%2FP1120243.jpg?alt=media&token=7bb458ea-8b98-433b-974e-4407497b9d97\",\"closeTime\":1664423940000,\"question\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"tags\":[],\"url\":\"https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"pool\":{\"NO\":1650.2652964915594,\"YES\":24.39385111263929},\"probability\":0.9884078047101845,\"p\":0.5575939973657242,\"totalLiquidity\":160,\"outcomeType\":\"BINARY\",\"mechanism\":\"cpmm-1\",\"volume\":6275.337580857782,\"volume7Days\":0,\"volume24Hours\":0,\"isResolved\":true,\"resolution\":\"YES\",\"resolutionTime\":1664432192844,\"resolutionProbability\":0.9884078047101845,\"lastUpdatedTime\":1664398218328,\"comments\":[{\"createdTime\":1664232299771,\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"text\":\"*Not
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really a small part, but my point is that there's other stuff going on here
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that wasn't reversed. One very important part was reversed, and I agree that
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is \\\"substantial\\\".\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"id\":\"vAyGrGSfei2JpJhDbxb2\"},{\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"createdTime\":1664232199731,\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"id\":\"U8x8B4XRZWv7LDrf6Zh2\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"1Oq0eh40fApX38NuRtID\"}},{\"text\":\"
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This was only one appeal about one small part. Let's say hypothetically the
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special master rules that documents XYZ are protected by privilege. DOJ certainly
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might want to appeal that. That appeal could be won or lost.\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"}},{\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"1Oq0eh40fApX38NuRtID\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"B3HMgrD1PvSZHru2iB9P\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"text\":\"
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These are the only documents subject to criminal investigation. The DoJ appeal
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was to repair the harm to an ongoing investigation from Cannon's ruling that
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went against typical prosecutorial discretion by federal judges. Judges never
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stop investigations like Cannon did, so it was an exceptional ruling, thus
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does not need an exceptional reversal. Having all those other documents mixed
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in just bolsters the DoJ case that Trump knew what he had and hid it intentionally
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amongst innocuous looking stuff. \",\"type\":\"text\"}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"I
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don't think we are disagreeing anymore, right?\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"createdTime\":1664231555360,\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\"},{\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"createdTime\":1664231307304,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"id\":\"QWNowSNLzgdvz76Iy1O0\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"BngauOvOmJiN03pMmkTk\",\"label\":\"jack\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
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We aren't even talking about this question anymore. The DoJ got everything
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they asked for on appeal, so how could it possibly be it wasn't reversed?
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Wouldn't they have gone further then to get it reversed? If the DoJ isn't
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challenging it is it really a win for Trump - not likely. But again, we are
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not even talking about the special master anymore really but instead how Trump
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could be charged. The special master would have had to have found an improper
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search for Trump to be protected by him, that is totally off the table now.
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\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}],\"type\":\"doc\"}},{\"id\":\"B3HMgrD1PvSZHru2iB9P\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"createdTime\":1664231117368,\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"The
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DoJ has only claimed that they pertain to the 100 or so documents that contain
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defense information and may or may not be classified. \"}]}],\"type\":\"blockquote\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"I
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have not seen that, do you have a link?\"}]}]},\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userUsername\":\"jack\"},{\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"ZfU2L9Kca8wGkQGQX1qc\",\"label\":\"BTE\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"text\":\"
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He can be charged with violations of the Espionage Act for unclassified information.
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He can also be charged with concealing records (including unclassified ones).
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These aren't coming from the Presidential Records Act.\",\"type\":\"text\"}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"From
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\",\"type\":\"text\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_search_of_Mar-a-Lago\",\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"attrs\":{\"target\":\"_blank\",\"href\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_search_of_Mar-a-Lago\",\"class\":\"no-underline
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!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
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hover:decoration-2\"}}]},{\"text\":\".\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"bulletList\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"listItem\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"violations
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of the \"},{\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"attrs\":{\"href\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Espionage_Act_of_1917\",\"class\":\"no-underline
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!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
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hover:decoration-2\",\"target\":\"_blank\"}}],\"text\":\"Espionage Act\",\"type\":\"text\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
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regarding unauthorized retention of national defense information;\"}]}]},{\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"destroying
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or concealing records \\\"with the intent to impede \"},{\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"attrs\":{\"class\":\"no-underline
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!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
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hover:decoration-2\",\"href\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obstruction_of_justice\",\"target\":\"_blank\"}}],\"text\":\"obstruct\",\"type\":\"text\"},{\"text\":\"
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or influence\\\" federal government activity;\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}],\"type\":\"listItem\"},{\"type\":\"listItem\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"illegal
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removal or destruction of federal government records (without respect to cause).\"},{\"marks\":[{\"attrs\":{\"target\":\"_blank\",\"href\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_search_of_Mar-a-Lago#cite_note-NYT-20220812-1\",\"class\":\"no-underline
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!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
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hover:decoration-2\"},\"type\":\"link\"}],\"text\":\"[1]\",\"type\":\"text\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"marks\":[{\"attrs\":{\"href\":\"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FBI_search_of_Mar-a-Lago#cite_note-SavageDoesntMatter-2\",\"target\":\"_blank\",\"class\":\"no-underline
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!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
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hover:decoration-2\"},\"type\":\"link\"}],\"text\":\"[2]\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]}]}],\"type\":\"blockquote\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"blockquote\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"unclassified
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\\\"national defense information\\\" would still be covered under the Espionage
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Act\"}]}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"createdTime\":1664231096923,\"id\":\"BngauOvOmJiN03pMmkTk\",\"userName\":\"Jack\"},{\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"id\":\"F2F8VNen3DiH5P4LHVoS\",\"createdTime\":1664231010008,\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"agUgB8zgUyG3jRNd6qD8\",\"label\":\"jack\"}},{\"text\":\"
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So I disagree that the three charges pertain to potentially all of the documents.
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The DoJ has only claimed that they pertain to the 100 or so documents that
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contain defense information and may or may not be classified. Remember, Trump
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claims on TV he declassified them via osmosis. Dearie has told Trump's lawyers
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they must address those claims as well as claims of planted documents by next
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week or those defenses are excluded permanently. That is why Trump's lawyers
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are trying so hard not to assert those things yet. \",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\"},{\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"id\":\"ZfU2L9Kca8wGkQGQX1qc\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"uCuqlZdsMaRif9pPemuz\",\"label\":\"jack\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
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You are saying the special master can protect trump somehow still? He is just
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reviewing documents subject to the Presidential Records Act now, which is
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a law with no enforcement mechanism. The only documents Trump can get charged
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with the three crimes cited in the warrant must contain defense information,
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and need not be classified as you said. But the records the government is
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not contesting to be classified are actually a paperwork issue because the
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presidential records act can't be used to charge him. Only the Espionage Act.
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\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"createdTime\":1664230805357,\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\"},{\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"id\":\"agUgB8zgUyG3jRNd6qD8\",\"createdTime\":1664230695893,\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"YX5hR4VeZLr29cWbktth\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
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The special master can still (hypothetically) protect Trump from possessing
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documents he shouldn't have. Note that the charges were about all the documents,
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the charges didn't even require the documents be classified.\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\"},{\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"id\":\"YX5hR4VeZLr29cWbktth\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Do
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what?\"}]}]},\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will the
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Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"createdTime\":1664230643020,\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\"},{\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
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the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"createdTime\":1664230622558,\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"uNpua8wuw9G3c9JOJM0i\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"text\":\"
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The special master can still do that! And that's my whole point!\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"id\":\"uCuqlZdsMaRif9pPemuz\"},{\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"uNpua8wuw9G3c9JOJM0i\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"FEn6lc9ihxlOUEuE5KSw\",\"label\":\"jack\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"text\":\"
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What is the significance of the special master at all if he can't ultimately
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protect Trump from being prosecuted for possessing something he shouldn't.
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Trump was trying to use this to assert he was entitled to have the classified
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documents, everything else was just noise. That has been completely rejected
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so we are arguing over semantics. The substance is clear IMO.\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"createdTime\":1664230605603,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\"},{\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"createdTime\":1664230588026,\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"The
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special master is still reviewing the documents, except for the 100 classified
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documents. Certainly the 100 classified documents were the most urgent for
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the DOJ, but it's not clear to me that they were the most imoprtant for Trump's
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legal strategy (they might be, or it might be that they just wanted to get
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as many documents considered privileged as possible, or that they just wanted
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to stall the process in general).\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"id\":\"NDbuXmax6rCGuZBXwU6G\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"userName\":\"Jack\"},{\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"oaWfCEIRLApKBapQwokp\",\"label\":\"jack\"}},{\"text\":\"
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I guess MKT is acceptable resolution since we are just going to continue splitting
|
|
hairs. \",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},\"id\":\"h9M9FT2yyoMpCoPDxgaq\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"createdTime\":1664230504619,\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\"},{\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"FEn6lc9ihxlOUEuE5KSw\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"I'm
|
|
very confused and do not follow this logic at all. He can't show harm \",\"type\":\"text\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"italic\"}],\"text\":\"about
|
|
the stay\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\" is different from he can't show
|
|
harm \"},{\"text\":\"about the documents in general\",\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"italic\"}],\"type\":\"text\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
- note that the special master is still reviewing the unclassified documents.\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"createdTime\":1664230502368,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\"},{\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"createdTime\":1664230400788,\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"oaWfCEIRLApKBapQwokp\",\"label\":\"jack\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
That was the reason for the special master in the first place, to ensure Trump
|
|
didn't suffer irreparable harm. Typically only attorneys get the privilege
|
|
of a special master, so this was already unusual. The potential outcomes of
|
|
this now are just one, review of documents for attorney client privilege.
|
|
\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"id\":\"jT493NgpsUowdWOC5qhN\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831},{\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"w14HjEKq9Q8ugHTJE9oi\",\"label\":\"jack\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
That bit about Trump no longer being able to show irreparable harm is what
|
|
I am referring to. Changes the significance of the entire situation.\"}]}]},\"id\":\"l8CqbkP4MYnBGLIGOxGo\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"createdTime\":1664230319065,\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831},{\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"What
|
|
no. I feel like we're talking past each other. If the stay can't be appealed,
|
|
that just means the stay remains in place. Which doesn't tell us any new information.
|
|
The whole discussion here is whether the stay is sufficient to count as substantially
|
|
reversed.\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"createdTime\":1664230286206,\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"id\":\"oaWfCEIRLApKBapQwokp\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\"},{\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"createdTime\":1664230275457,\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"w14HjEKq9Q8ugHTJE9oi\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
\"}]},{\"type\":\"tiptapTweet\",\"attrs\":{\"tweetId\":\"t1573073074722951169\"}}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"dMpfeqtFW5C2r4Mn7NMG\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\"},{\"createdTime\":1664230157825,\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"w14HjEKq9Q8ugHTJE9oi\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
I think effectively unappealable meets the standard for \\\"substantially
|
|
reversed\\\".\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"id\":\"xuAOoom7OwtcxQX6jNoJ\"},{\"id\":\"V503fkpR6cWJclild92c\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"w14HjEKq9Q8ugHTJE9oi\"}},{\"text\":\"
|
|
\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"attrs\":{\"tweetId\":\"t1573116315304329216\"},\"type\":\"tiptapTweet\"}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"createdTime\":1664230060274,\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\"},{\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"auuX5PdHE63wr2PIgObt\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
I'm not seeing that in the stay or Cannon's update? \"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"https://www.lawfareblog.com/cannon-strikes-two-provisions-special-master-order-response-eleventh-circuit-ruling\",\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"attrs\":{\"class\":\"no-underline
|
|
!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
|
|
hover:decoration-2\",\"target\":\"_blank\",\"href\":\"https://www.lawfareblog.com/cannon-strikes-two-provisions-special-master-order-response-eleventh-circuit-ruling\"}}]},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
says it removed the part about classified documents, and also struck \\\"Paragraph
|
|
6, which requires the Special Master to submit interim reports and recommendations
|
|
to the court throughout their review\\\". Nothing about executive privilege
|
|
that I see there yet.\"}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"It
|
|
looks like the order is still for the special master to review for attorney-client
|
|
privilege and executive privilege.\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"id\":\"w14HjEKq9Q8ugHTJE9oi\",\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"createdTime\":1664229856648},{\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"createdTime\":1664229615681,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"id\":\"jvcclosHtTrF2Tf0HQev\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"DGgg2oLYm35ErbquWjT6\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"text\":\"
|
|
First the Special Master told Trump's lawyers he couldn't understand how executive
|
|
privilege applied and then the appeals court basically let Cannon save some
|
|
face and she took them up on it. She realized Trump was only going to drag
|
|
her down. \",\"type\":\"text\"}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"What
|
|
is becoming very apparent is the judges are starting to get really pissed
|
|
at Trump's lawyers because they won't answer for the things Trump is saying
|
|
on TV since they aren't going to commit perjury. This is getting out of hand
|
|
before it even really gets started. I am starting to think Trump is going
|
|
to be held without bail or completely gagged when he is charged because a
|
|
judge isn't gonna just sit back and take personal threats when they have the
|
|
power to literally silence anyone on all channels through force of court order.
|
|
He needs to shut up or he won't even get the fight he seems to be itching
|
|
for. \"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\"},{\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"id\":\"auuX5PdHE63wr2PIgObt\",\"createdTime\":1664229300190,\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"DGgg2oLYm35ErbquWjT6\",\"label\":\"jack\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
The important point here is that Cannon radically altered her original order
|
|
such that not only does it change substantively, it eliminated the possibility
|
|
Trump can appeal again to the supreme court because she has said he cannot
|
|
show he could be harmed in his capacity as former Executive in any way by
|
|
the continuing of the criminal investigation.\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\"},{\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"id\":\"golzLaPRo3y9iFLRDhSV\",\"createdTime\":1664229199633,\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"DGgg2oLYm35ErbquWjT6\"}},{\"text\":\"
|
|
Yes, it has been completely struck from the order by Judge Cannon. And it
|
|
was laughed out of court at the 11th circuit by 2/3 judges appointed by Trump.
|
|
They literally made fun of him in their opinion, like 'why is this asshole
|
|
wasting everybody's time??'\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831},{\"replyToCommentId\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"id\":\"DGgg2oLYm35ErbquWjT6\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"betId\":\"4tuYYtd48xVv644fFiLh\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"createdTime\":1664229065434,\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"label\":\"LivInTheLookingGlass\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
I think YES or a high percentage is the correct resolution, and I don't think
|
|
I have a good answer as to which is better (I'm also biased).\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"text\":\"One
|
|
thought: was there any change to the part about executive privilege review?
|
|
(I didn't see any change mentioned in the news.) That was another controversial
|
|
part that was less immediately problematic but could have had more interesting
|
|
long-term effects.\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9862381333247052,\"commenterPositionShares\":654,\"betOutcome\":\"NO\",\"betAmount\":-42.854453238099914,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\"},{\"id\":\"Y1vCgyIeC9EsXEJZGIST\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLivInTheLookingGlass%2FP1120243.jpg?alt=media&token=7bb458ea-8b98-433b-974e-4407497b9d97\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userName\":\"Olivia\",\"commenterPositionShares\":82,\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"createdTime\":1664221499323,\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Okay,
|
|
going off of BTE's article, the part that seems most relevant to this question
|
|
is this: \"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"blockquote\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"text\":\"Cannon
|
|
on Thursday issued a revised order stating that the special master in the
|
|
case would review all documents \\\"except the approximately one-hundred documents
|
|
bearing classification markings.\\\" She also struck two portions from her
|
|
original order preventing the DOJ from probing the classified documents during
|
|
the special master review and requiring them to disclose the materials to
|
|
the special master\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"The
|
|
most egregious part of the order by far was the inability for DOJ to review
|
|
the documents marked as classified. In addition, I believe that, absent this
|
|
amendment, the 11th Circuit would have made a stronger reversal\"}]},{\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"The
|
|
three-judge panel \u2014 which included two Trump appointees \u2014 said Cannon,
|
|
a fellow Trump-appointee, \\\"abused\\\" her discretion by barring the DOJ
|
|
from continuing to investigate the classified documents seized from Trump's
|
|
Mar-a-Lago residence and allowed investigators to resume their probe.\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}],\"type\":\"blockquote\"},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Given
|
|
all of this, I can see no reason to resolve lower than 75%. I would like to
|
|
use this comment as an opportunity for any to voice an objection to this being
|
|
resolved YES. If there is one that I think is reasonable, and I haven't resolved
|
|
the market yet, I will not do so. Otherwise I will wait >= 24 hours, then
|
|
resolve YES\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"commenterPositionProb\":0.8392072764378155,\"userId\":\"k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2\",\"userUsername\":\"LivInTheLookingGlass\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\"},{\"createdTime\":1664114264732,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.85,\"id\":\"d3mjOrkgpvr4os7EgJGS\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"Just
|
|
to clarify my take, the combination of the 11th circuit reversal and the original
|
|
judge changing parts of her order to effectively eliminate Trump's chances
|
|
to appeal make this a very substantial reversal. All of the \\\"wins\\\" Trump
|
|
supposedly got from Judge Cannon are gone. I would call that substantial.\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"userName\":\"BTE\"},{\"id\":\"FAAkfvTKAY2uKhe8TBEN\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"betOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.85,\"replyToCommentId\":\"f2KICwind6vuEAKsH3dg\",\"betAmount\":100,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionShares\":831,\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"createdTime\":1664114136702,\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"MichaelWheatley\",\"id\":\"f2KICwind6vuEAKsH3dg\"}},{\"text\":\"
|
|
LOL. \",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"betId\":\"kignoPm6Ocr0x6VKwyqA\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\"},{\"userUsername\":\"MartinRandall\",\"betOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi4DoekN-bxocogrQc7Q8l6w7dDxSF_A5TEq7A6JQ=s96-c\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"betAmount\":-100.26344065781174,\"betId\":\"jeIV2yjwUkDAuFrXQ97S\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"id\":\"vKjsfd6lcwORTI6g97JC\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionShares\":1748,\"commenterPositionProb\":0.8013394952142384,\"createdTime\":1664110305138,\"userId\":\"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"LIpBKoTrS0LxfQ7Bd6U9\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
I think the hold was pretty \\\"substantial\\\", even if not total, so I'd
|
|
expect this to resolve yes or at a high percent.\"}]}]},\"userName\":\"Martin
|
|
Randall\"},{\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"createdTime\":1664056557016,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"id\":\"YIKZaZBF1cWC8aQmT5De\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.8518675434158606,\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"commenterPositionShares\":712,\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"VgNsXlnik8Xn5fvelzZH\",\"label\":\"jack\"}},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
The DoJ appeal was only to access the classified documents. They won. Unequivocally.
|
|
\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\"},{\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"betAmount\":10,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"betId\":\"hyqr43QOuAfHoPd5cX5l\",\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.8518675434158606,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"betOutcome\":\"NO\",\"commenterPositionShares\":2154,\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"sXzD7Fe2Vh7DX6yZ8o6R\",\"label\":\"BTE\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
The criminal investigation was about all the documents, not just the classified
|
|
documents, I believe.\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"id\":\"VgNsXlnik8Xn5fvelzZH\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"createdTime\":1664056134581},{\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"LIpBKoTrS0LxfQ7Bd6U9\",\"label\":\"jack\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
Those are the documents pertinent to the criminal investigation, which the
|
|
special master order had completely put on hold until December. Now that hold
|
|
has been totally lifted and Trump's appeals opportunities are gone, the criminal
|
|
investigation has already been allowed to proceed. This is basically a TOTAL
|
|
REVERSAL of the controversal part of the order.\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"id\":\"sXzD7Fe2Vh7DX6yZ8o6R\",\"createdTime\":1664055295477,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.8518675434158606,\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionShares\":712,\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\"},{\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"createdTime\":1664055179328,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"betAmount\":95,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"betOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.86,\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"LIpBKoTrS0LxfQ7Bd6U9\",\"label\":\"jack\"}},{\"text\":\"
|
|
I completely disagree. The ONLY part that mattered was the confidential documents.\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"commenterPositionShares\":712,\"betId\":\"KJQSzQH7BsVY07Xuwwfw\",\"id\":\"SMWRBDk9zM05wEsSHB8b\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\"},{\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"createdTime\":1664054997660,\"userId\":\"YGZdZUSFQyM8j2YzPaBqki8NBz23\",\"commenterPositionShares\":2074,\"userName\":\"Jack\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Cannon
|
|
on Thursday issued a revised order stating that the special master in the
|
|
case would review all documents \\\"except the approximately one-hundred documents
|
|
bearing classification markings.\\\" She also struck two portions from her
|
|
original order preventing the DOJ from probing the classified documents during
|
|
the special master review and requiring them to disclose the materials to
|
|
the special master.\"}]}],\"type\":\"blockquote\"},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"I
|
|
think the question is exactly the same as what PeterBorah asked earlier:\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"blockquote\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"If
|
|
the appeals court overturns the stay of the criminal investigation of the
|
|
100 classified documents, would that be a \\\"substantial reversal\\\"?\"}]}]},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"I
|
|
think the \\\"main\\\" part of the special master decision was deciding that
|
|
it was necessary to appoint a special master. The part about including the
|
|
confidential documents is a small, although admittedly important, part of
|
|
the decision. Only a small part of the ruling has been reversed. If we read
|
|
the question text, it seems to me that the question is about the appointment
|
|
of the special master in general (example: \\\"Inability to appoint a special
|
|
master\\\"). We need the author to comment to clarify the thinking.\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"userUsername\":\"jack\",\"id\":\"LIpBKoTrS0LxfQ7Bd6U9\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.8899999999999999,\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FJackC%2Fmetal-jacks-thumbnail.jpg?alt=media&token=89d230f3-05a9-4ad4-9606-5fc6e2c6b096\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"NO\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\"},{\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"createdTime\":1664053606525,\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"betOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionShares\":389,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"id\":\"p5QMw2saQDOZhz1BdQxD\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"mention\",\"attrs\":{\"label\":\"BTE\",\"id\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\"}},{\"text\":\"
|
|
There is no question this happened. The original judge has also modified her
|
|
order essentially eliminating Trump\u2019s chances of appealing. \",\"type\":\"text\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"betId\":\"cKzbL2JR4ACAcHzkPiIn\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"betAmount\":125,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.88},{\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.9000000000000001,\"betOutcome\":\"YES\",\"id\":\"obcV5KzTiw7ayHJQOqYo\",\"commenterPositionShares\":252,\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"marks\":[{\"attrs\":{\"href\":\"https://www.salon.com/2022/09/23/backtracks-after-rebuke--legal-experts-say-it-may-sink-his-chance-to-appeal/\",\"class\":\"no-underline
|
|
!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
|
|
hover:decoration-2\",\"target\":\"_blank\"},\"type\":\"link\"}],\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"https://www.salon.com/2022/09/23/backtracks-after-rebuke--legal-experts-say-it-may-sink-his-chance-to-appeal/\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"betId\":\"vYDxPZ97SsCX40rNCQD6\",\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"createdTime\":1664053533811,\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\",\"betAmount\":225,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\"},{\"userName\":\"Martin
|
|
Randall\",\"createdTime\":1663846754656,\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi4DoekN-bxocogrQc7Q8l6w7dDxSF_A5TEq7A6JQ=s96-c\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.89,\"commenterPositionShares\":2754,\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"marks\":[{\"type\":\"link\",\"attrs\":{\"href\":\"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/21/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-records-hold-lifted\",\"target\":\"_blank\",\"class\":\"no-underline
|
|
!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
|
|
hover:decoration-2\"}}],\"text\":\"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/21/donald-trump-mar-a-lago-records-hold-lifted\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},\"id\":\"01hOqteB8XKEeLTOxb5h\",\"userId\":\"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1\",\"userUsername\":\"MartinRandall\"},{\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Oof,
|
|
velocity is fast.\"}]}]},\"createdTime\":1663846727751,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"betAmount\":999.9999999999999,\"id\":\"xrfq9k1Aj748x2h80m9s\",\"userUsername\":\"MartinRandall\",\"commenterPositionShares\":2754,\"commenterPositionProb\":0.89,\"userId\":\"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1\",\"betId\":\"OlKCIwIcQgcHSHyNphpl\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userName\":\"Martin
|
|
Randall\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a-/AOh14Gi4DoekN-bxocogrQc7Q8l6w7dDxSF_A5TEq7A6JQ=s96-c\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"betOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commentType\":\"contract\"},{\"commenterPositionProb\":0.5835430870214334,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userName\":\"PeterBorah\",\"userUsername\":\"PeterBorah\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/a/AATXAJzavsxdwtInYnMOxyWWyrb0GMkgLq1JY7BPyOMa=s96-c\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commenterPositionShares\":196,\"createdTime\":1663427730025,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"If
|
|
the appeals court overturns the stay of the criminal investigation of the
|
|
100 classified documents, would that be a \\\"substantial reversal\\\"?\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"id\":\"qvKbLrxNQyyPb9w0jEUb\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userId\":\"0SO51c0Z0ZQWhvRtZ40jvFFnkHe2\"},{\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"text\":\"I
|
|
keep misreading the title and thinking there's a scandal about Trump appearing
|
|
on \",\"type\":\"text\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"https://www.masterclass.com/\",\"marks\":[{\"attrs\":{\"target\":\"_blank\",\"href\":\"https://www.masterclass.com/\",\"class\":\"no-underline
|
|
!text-indigo-700 z-10 break-anywhere hover:underline hover:decoration-indigo-400
|
|
hover:decoration-2\"},\"type\":\"link\"}]}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FMichaelWheatley%2FUntitled-1.png?alt=media&token=c762196e-85d0-4f0c-961a-e3a80d736c9b\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"id\":\"f2KICwind6vuEAKsH3dg\",\"userUsername\":\"MichaelWheatley\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"createdTime\":1662922324768,\"userId\":\"jO7sUhIDTQbAJ3w86akzncTlpRG2\",\"userName\":\"Michael
|
|
Wheatley\"},{\"replyToCommentId\":\"mNeZmoMVajqiDD3mzdw8\",\"commenterPositionShares\":78,\"userId\":\"4JuXgDx47xPagH5mcLDqLzUSN5g2\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1\",\"label\":\"MartinRandall\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"text\":\"
|
|
The judge ignored the main legal question in her ruling, that of executive
|
|
privilege. She literally just bypassed it even though it was the only important
|
|
thing to address. She basically said she it was unsettled and didn\u2019t
|
|
want to weigh in. Pathetic. It will be clarified I imagine at some point.
|
|
\",\"type\":\"text\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"}]},\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.47824847224384914,\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"id\":\"rOOjbE4tslYICKSHfSeu\",\"createdTime\":1662650232062,\"userName\":\"BTE\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userUsername\":\"BTE\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FBTE%2F7-M4WLXUQh.jpeg?alt=media&token=5245ad8e-bc0c-4eef-ae63-dccbd38a0908\"},{\"userId\":\"k13AzY3mu8XTju3xRZV3P8qBjEC2\",\"replyToCommentId\":\"mNeZmoMVajqiDD3mzdw8\",\"content\":{\"type\":\"doc\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"attrs\":{\"id\":\"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1\",\"label\":\"MartinRandall\"},\"type\":\"mention\"},{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"
|
|
willing to change wording, but my impression is this is a brief filed in an
|
|
entirely different court than the case it is interacting with\"}]}]},\"userName\":\"Olivia\",\"commenterPositionProb\":0.5445746901546012,\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"commenterPositionOutcome\":\"YES\",\"userUsername\":\"LivInTheLookingGlass\",\"commenterPositionShares\":82,\"id\":\"RQZv3uYU6dDYefaz52rl\",\"contractSlug\":\"will-the-trump-special-master-case\",\"userAvatarUrl\":\"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2FLivInTheLookingGlass%2FP1120243.jpg?alt=media&token=7bb458ea-8b98-433b-974e-4407497b9d97\",\"createdTime\":1662614465602,\"contractQuestion\":\"Will
|
|
the Trump special master case be substantially reversed by end of year?\"},{\"commentType\":\"contract\",\"userName\":\"Martin
|
|
Randall\",\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userUsername\":\"MartinRandall\",\"createdTime\":1662613896677,\"userId\":\"sA7V30Ic73XZtniboy2eKr6ekkn1\",\"content\":{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Was
|
|
the case only about the special master decision? I thought that was one decision
|
|
in the case?\"}]}],\"type\":\"doc\"},\"contractQuestion\":\"Will the Trump
|
|
special master case be substantially reversed by end of 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Bot Laboratory\",\"outcome\":\"NO\"},{\"createdTime\":1664110019730,\"isCancelled\":false,\"contractId\":\"z8awccgKF9qEreoG6FsH\",\"userUsername\":\"MartinRandall\",\"loanAmount\":-5.445979516967091,\"id\":\"jeIV2yjwUkDAuFrXQ97S\",\"probAfter\":0.8013394952142384,\"isFilled\":true,\"probBefore\":0.8518675434158606,\"userName\":\"Martin
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criteria here is intentionally ambiguous, as many things could lead to a substantial
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reversal of this decision. Non-exhaustive examples would include:\",\"type\":\"text\"}]},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"listItem\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"text\":\"A
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successful motion to reconsider\",\"type\":\"text\"}]}]},{\"type\":\"listItem\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Inability
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to appoint a special master\"}]}]},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Reversal
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by the 11th Circuit, DC Circuit, or SCOTUS\"}]}],\"type\":\"listItem\"}],\"type\":\"orderedList\",\"attrs\":{\"start\":1}},{\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Absent
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a situation like this, this market will resolve NO\"},{\"type\":\"hardBreak\"}],\"type\":\"paragraph\"},{\"type\":\"paragraph\",\"content\":[{\"type\":\"text\",\"text\":\"Close
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date updated to 2022-09-28 11:59 pm\"}]}]},\"textDescription\":\"Resolution
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criteria here is intentionally ambiguous, as many things could lead to a substantial
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reversal of this decision. Non-exhaustive examples would include:\\n\\nA successful
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motion to reconsider\\n\\nInability to appoint a special master\\n\\nReversal
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by the 11th Circuit, DC Circuit, or SCOTUS\\n\\nAbsent a situation like this,
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this market will resolve NO\\n\\n\\nClose date updated to 2022-09-28 11:59
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pm\"}"
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|
|
- HIT
|
|
X-Vercel-Id:
|
|
- cle1::cle1::54ccq-1665610305530-c8fa66bb11ba
|
|
content-length:
|
|
- '430722'
|
|
status:
|
|
code: 200
|
|
message: OK
|
|
version: 1
|